Building career resilience: Mastering the Three Horizons approach.
“Hindsight is the best insight to foresight.”
Recently, I shared my career journey with a group of women leaders. Reflecting on how I grew my career, I realised it was a mix of luck, hard work and horizon scanning. I shared these insights to help the Millennials and Gen Z leaders design their careers, especially in a volatile, uncertain, ambiguous and complex (VUCA) world where future jobs are yet to be invented, and AI is reshaping opportunities.
Understanding career resilience in a VUCA world.
With lifespans extending (many of us will live to be a hundred) and potential careers spanning 50 years, how do we stay aware of change and adapt for the future? As an aspiring leader, when do you say yes to unexpected opportunities? How do you cope with unforeseen challenges? And how do you bounce back from setbacks like redundancy?
The key lies in understanding Three Horizons thinking, a model that guides career resilience in a world where the old Life 1.0 model no longer applies.
Learning from the past to predict the future.
In the last half-century, more women have joined the workforce, and technology has revolutionised business. From the 1975 the Sex Discrimination Act to the rise of tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google and Meta, the landscape has shifted dramatically. However, the average lifespan of a company has decreased to about 20 years (as of 2020), and the average tenure of a CEO is now around four years.
In the next 50 years, businesses will face rapid technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, an ageing population, and climate change. Those that thrive will balance strategic tensions between progressive and defensive mindsets, and between consistent and flexible ways of operating. Your career should do the same.
Why use The Three Horizons of Growth model?
McKinsey’s Three Horizons of Growth model helps companies plan for resilient innovation and growth. Here’s a breakdown:
- Horizon 1 – Core (1–2-years): Focus on optimising the current core business. 80% of the effort.
- Horizon 2 – Adjacent (3–5-years): Develop new business opportunities. 20% of the effort.
- Horizon 3 – Transformational (5–10-years): Explore future trends and innovations. 10% of the effort.
For instance, Amazon concurrently extended its e-commerce business, developed Amazon Web Services, and transformed to a content creator with Amazon Prime.
Applying Three Horizons thinking to your career.
Disruption is now the default. Companies will fail, merge, be acquired, or restructure throughout your working life. You might be promoted, made redundant, stay local, or go global, deepen your expertise, or a broaden to a multi-sector generalist. Here’s how you can use Three Horizons thinking for a resilient career.
- Horizon 1 – Core (Now): Optimise your current role.
- What are my responsibilities and goals?
- Am I exceeding expectations?
- How can I develop my skills and seek feedback?
- How does my role align with my long-term goals?
- Horizon 2 – Adjacent (Next): Build skills and network for new opportunities.
- What are the emerging trends in my organisation and sector?
- How can my strengths set me up for emerging opportunities?
- What skills do I need to develop?
- Do I have a network to support my growth?
- Horizon 3 – Transformational (Imagine): Consider future roles and possibilities.
- What are my long-term career aspirations?
- What sectors or roles align with my purpose and passions?
- How can I gain the skills for a new direction?
- Is there a way to test my vision to ensure its right for me?
Trusting the dots for a resilient career
Steve Jobs said, “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So, you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future.” His calligraphy class (recreation) led to his breakthroughs in personal computing (re-creation).
How will the dots connect across your three horizons, so when you are in your 90s, you never say, “I wish I had.”?
